Forecast
Hydrology
Hydrological intelligence for the Magat watershed — hybrid physics-ML model, GPM/IMERG · ECMWF · SMAP.
Reservoir level
Loading Reservoir levelCurrent inflow
Loading Current inflow7-day peak (P50)
Loading 7-day peak (P50)Forecast confidence
Loading Forecast confidence7-day inflow forecast
Probabilistic envelope (P10 / P50 / P90) with first 24h verified against telemetry.
3-hour resolution
Inflow forecast: P10–P90 probabilistic band with P50 median and observed flow in cubic metres per second is loading
P50 forecast P10–P90 band Observed (last 24h)
Reservoir state
78%193.2 m EL · 1.04 BCM live storage
193 m
High
178 m
Rule
160 m
Low
Data ingestion
NASA GPM/IMERG
30-min · 10 km satellite precip
ECMWF HRES
9 km NWP · 0/6/12/18 UTC
NASA SMAP
Soil moisture · 9 km
NIA telemetry
12 gauging stations · 15-min
PAGASA advisory
Tropical cyclone bulletins
Sentinel-2 land cover
10 m · 5-day revisit
Flood early warning
All clear
All horizons within nominal range. Next coordination window not required.
Joint dashboard shared with NIA & downstream LGUs (Isabela, Cagayan). 48–72h lead time exceeds the post-Ulysses protocol requirement.
Model ensemble comparison
GFS · ECMWF · hybrid ML · ensemble mean — weights re-trained nightly on observed inflow
backtest MAE 41 m³/s
Forecast model ensemble comparison is loading
GFS
NOAA · 0.25° · weight 0.18
ECMWF
HRES · 9 km · weight 0.31
Hybrid ML
SARIMAX + GBM · 0.36
Ensemble
stacked · MAE 41 m³/s